Game 6: Ravens @ Colts
Other than last year's blowout in Baltimore, this game is usually an interesting and competitive game between these two teams. Last year, the Ravens were blown out, again on national TV no less, by the Colts a week after taking the New England Patriots to the brink on their way to their undefeated regular season. Perhaps they shot their wad against the Pats and were so let down after that emotionally deflating last few minutes that they had nothing left in the tank. They played as poorly as they did the majority of the season, with the loss to the Pats as their brightest point of a horribly disappointing year.
While the Ravens are on their way back to repectability and should be much more competitive this year, the Colts may actually be on a downward trend. This is not saying that Indy is prime for the picking, especially on the road for the Ravens. However, Peyton Manning and company seem to have lost the luster that made them a perrennial Super Bowl selection for many years. The team has been more prone to injuries to their veterans, such as Marvin Harrison and no longer are even a lock to even win their own division due to the rise of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Don't worry, Colts fans. The horseshoe will bring you good luck at least in week 6 against the traveling Ravens. While I always love to see how the Ravens stack up against the best offenses in the league, beating the Colts in their home crib should be way too much of a challenge for even Ray Lewis to overcome. The Colts will still put points on the board, as Reggie Wayne may now be a better receiver than the aging and injury prone Harrison, and even one of the best in the entire league. Dallas Clark is almost more of a wide receiver than tight end and is a nightmare for any nickel back or safety to cover in the open field. RB Joseph Addai is multi-talented and I still haven't even mentioned Peyton Manning. Manning is still one of the top two or three QB's in the league and will not bend or break under the pressure, at least against the Ravens. He can and will put points on the board and is a threat to do so from anywhere on the field. This is unfortunately something the Ravens just have not been able to do, even in the Red Zone! Due to the huge differences in the two offenses, I see no way to reasonably predict a Ravens victory.
The Colts defense is vastly underrated due to their high profile offense. However, they are filled with playmakers, including perhaps the most dominating player in tiny safety Bob Sanders. His presence on the field makes all the difference to the success of the Indy defense. Based on that, the gap between the teams' defenses is much less than the gap between the offenses. Therein lies the main reason that the Colts will defeat the Ravens in week 6. The Ravens will just not be able to slow down the Colts' offense while the Baltimore offense will not put enough points on the board to give us a chance at an upset.
Colts: 27 Ravens: 13
Season Record: 3-3
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Game 5: Titans @ Ravens
In 2006, the Tennessee Titans took the Ravens to the brink before falling on a missed chip shot field goal, 27-26. In that game, Titans QB Vince Young played like an All-Pro and had the Titans comfortably in the lead deep into the second half. Unfortunately for Tennessee fans, Young returned to rookie form and the Ravens remembered that they were a contender. It was a great comeback and a great win for the Ravens, but that was two seasons ago.
Last year, the Titans made the playoffs as a Wild Card team due to their surprisng 10-6 regular season. Young showed that he not only has the pure physical talent but also is learning to be a decent QB as well. However, defenses would prefer to keep him in the pocket and make him beat them with his arm rather than let him scramble and beat them with his legs. The Ravens defense is well suited to keep him off course all day long. Young will be facing one of, if not the fastest defense, sideline to sideline, in the league. This won't totally prevent him from getting his yards by scrambling, but he will pay the price for his efforts. By the end of the game, he will be forced to use his arm and that is where and when the Ravens defense will take over.
Baltimore will pound the ball between the tackles by double teaming their big men (Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch), along with crisp, short passes and the occasional long one to keep the secondary honest. This will be a war, as the Titans defense is significantly improved and no longer has to worry about the distraction of Adam "Pacman" Jones (I'll continue to use his nickname even though he wants us all to call him just "Adam"). The game should be filled with field goals and may just come down to two things. Who makes the most mistakes on offense, turning the ball over to these two offenses which are both their teams' weak links, and which kicker deals with the pressure of making the game winner. Both placekickers have great accuracy, although Tennessee's Rob Bironas has the stronger leg for the distance kicks. However, since the Ravens are at home, I'm going with the steady veteran, Matt "It's not over til it's" Stover to hit the game winner at the final whistle.
Ravens: 16 Titans: 13
Season Record: 3-2
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Game 4: Ravens @ Steelers
"This is How-ard Co-sell and welcome to Monday Night Football! "
Gee, I really miss that guy, as well as Dandy Don Meredith and even, yes I'll say it, OJ as well. Who knew that he could kill you on the field as well as off back then? MNF was sooo much better back then compared to now, as the guys up in the broadcast booth were almost as big stars in the league as the players were. There was no Sunday, Saturday or Thursday Night Football and certainly no NFL Network nor the Sunday Ticket! Thanksgiving games were extra special, although always watching the Detroit Lions was underwhelming even way back then. At the same time, no matter how much you hated the Cowboys or Redskins, their Thanksgiving Day battles were always classics (did someone say Clint Longley?).
Anyway, this week's game will certainly not be one of those classics. On second thought, for Steelers fans, last season's MNF destruction of the Ravens (by halftime) might be part of their highlight reels for years to come! If I dare regurgitate the mess, it was well over by the end of the first quarter as Pittsburgh scored the first four times it touched the ball and the Ravens seemed to turn it over every time they touched it. While certainly not making excuses for the loss, the defense was missing both of its starting cornerbacks and this game probably marked the beginning of the end of Steve McNair's career, as every time Steelers linebacker James Harrison breathed on him, he dropped the ball like a scaredy-cat and ran home crying!
Hopefully, this year's game will be quite different. When I say different, I don't actually expect the Ravens to win the game. Pittsburgh is just a tough team to beat, much less in their own crib, and on a national TV stage no less. Don't forget that the Ravens seem to hate the prime time games as much as the Steelers love the limelight. This game should keep both teams consistent in their "streaks."
Despite the Ravens improvement over last season and an apparent return of their previously injured players, the Steelers will prove to still be a better football team. I fully expect the Ravens defense to hold Fast Willie Parker to limited hard earned yards. While Big Ben will get his passing yards and even TD's, he won't have anywhere near the success nor time to sit back and wait for his receivers to get open that he enjoyed last year. He'll get hit hard and often by the Ravens' pressure from their front seven. However, it won't be enough to keep the Steelers from putting enough points on the board to easily win this game.
Offensively, the Ravens will have trouble moving the ball on the Steelers, as they will certainly stuff the run and dare the Ravens to beat them through the air. Blitzing on nearly every passing down, the Ravens will most likely self destruct enough to turn over the ball and give up easy points to the Steelers offense. Let's get this one over without any injuries, get out of Steeltown and start looking ahead to next week's game. Once again, ouch!
Steelers: 30-13
Season Record: 2-2
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Ravens CB Derrick Martin busted?
Or is this just a bizarre case of mistaken identity? A man whose name and birth date exactly matches Baltimore Ravens cornerback Drrick Martin was arrested at Cleveland's airport who found marijuana in his possession. According to the Ravens, Martin denies that the incident occurred, raising the possibility of pure coincidence.
Hopefully, this is not the same Derrick Martin, who along with his other reserve cornerbacks, played so poorly in place of injured starters Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle last season. If you're a star in the NFL and get in legal trouble, you're probably going to get a pass of sorts, at least from your own team. However, if you've just finished a horrible season, one minor slip like this could signal the pink slip real quick.
Let's not put the cart in front of the horse just yet, as the specific details of this news still need unraveling. Hopefully, this is just a case of mistaken identity and Martin can return to anonymity as a minor reserve at best in the Ravens secondary's game plan.
Updated 7/1/08: According to the Associated Press, it is indeed the Ravens' Derrick Martin who was arrested and charged with possession of marijuana at Cleveland's airport, even though he told the Ravens himself that it did not happen. Not good for Derrick!
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Game 3: Browns @ Ravens
The Cleveland Browns put a hurting on my Ravens last year, and to only make it worse, did so with a QB that the Ravens deemed uninterested enough in so as to let the Browns snatch him away off of their practice squad without nary a complaint. Derek Anderson went on to have a Pro Bowl season and was richly rewarded with a $27 million contract extension. Meanwhile the Ravens are still at a loss to determine who will be their QB when the 2008 season kicks off in September.
However, it really doesn't matter to me when determining the winner in each of these games. While the QB position may be the single most important individual position on the field, this is a team game and it's rare that one specific player is the reason a team either wins or loses, unless of course, your name is Steve McNair (or former coach Brian Billick). In my opinion, the key to an offense's success starts and stops with the offensive line. The retirement of All-World left tackle Jon Ogden is a great loss to the team, but it allows the team to finally set guys into place where they could easily remain for years, and consistency in those positions will ultimately equal success.
Therefore, by game three, I believe we will be seeing an improved pass protection as they get comfortable with whomever the QB ends up being (I still want to see Troy Smith in there). The run blocking should be very good, with both Willis McGahee and rookie Ray Rice blasting through holes. At the same time, regardless of who the QB is, I expect opposing defenses to stack the box with eight or even nine guys, just daring the Ravens to beat them through the air. With the multi-facet abilities of Troy Smith at the helm, he should be able to confuse and tire out defenses with his rolling out and scrambling abilities. This should tire out the Browns defenders, as they've totally revamped their defensive front with big plodding tackles who take up space but don't move too well. The Ravens will trap the Browns interior defense and Smith will roll out and move around until his receivers get open against what is still a very poor Browns secondary and their weak link.
On the defensive side of the ball, I am not yet convinced that Derek Anderson will replicate his 2007 season. That is probably why second string QB Brady Quinn is biting his tongue and being patient, as he also knows his time is coming and it could end up being sooner rather than later. The Ravens defense should be healthy and ready to make opposing teams pay for what happened last year. Browns running back and former Raven Jamal Lewis will be bottled up at the line of scrimmage, as he stutter steps to his huge three yards per carry average. The pass rush against a relatively immobile Anderson will pressure him and cause him to lose his cool and that won't bode well in enemy territory, where the Ravens' fans will make a lot of noise in support of Ray Lewis and friends.
If the Ravens players all remain healthy, they have a much better chance of looking like 2006's 13-3 team as opposed to 2007's 5-11 trainwreck. Game 3 should be similar to game 1 and the Ravens win a close game at home.
Ravens: 26 Browns: 20
Season Record: 2-1
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Game 2: Ravens @ Texans
In the past, this would have pretty much been an automatic "W" for most teams. However, the Ravens were absolutely horrible last season in their visiting white uniforms and until they prove they can go on the road and win, I will be hard pressed to predict a road victory against anyone.
The Houston Texans are a much improved team, both on offense and especially on the defensive side of the ball. Mario Williams, who was the surprising first pick in the 2006 draft ahead of Reggie Bush, has proved that the pick was the right one. He is not only a defensive leader on his team but also among the better pass rushers in the entire league. The Texans defense has always been their stronger point, but the arrival of QB Matt Schaub along with the playmaking of wide receiver Andre' Johnson, make them a threat to score from anywhere on the field. While I expect the Ravens to put Chris McAlister on Johnson's tail and the Ravens run defense to shut down the Texans running game, I see the offense sputtering against a tough defense. A couple of turnovers and the Ravens go into a hole and we all know they are just not real adept at coming back from behind.
Unfortunately, I see this game falling into that "special" Baltimore Ravens category where they seem to "snatch defeat from the jaws of victory!" Even without former head coach Brian Billick, the team is still able to remember how to take a win-able game and muff it in the last few minutes. This one will hurt on Monday!
Texans: 19 Ravens: 13
Season Record: 1-1
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Game 1: Bengals @ Ravens
Cincinnati comes to Baltimore to start the season, just like the Ravens did when they started the 2007 at the Bengals on Monday Night Football. That game was a total debacle, with Steve McNair having a hand in three of the six turnovers in losing in front of a national TV audience. Still, the Ravens were in position to win the game, when former coach Brian Billick made some ridiculous playcalling decisions that absolutely cost them the game, at least in my mind.
This time it's in our crib and we get to avoid the prime time stage where the Ravens always seem to showcase their worst efforts. Whereas we were the defending AFC North champs at that time, now we're the bottom dwellers with tons of uncertainty, while the Bengals are the NFL's version of Britney Spears- a total trainwreck (sorry, Britney, I love you but needed the reference)! With all their offseason soap opera stories starring Chad Johnson, the legal issues, arrests and infighting, they should be a great way to get the season started with a convincing victory. Chad Johnson wanted out of Cincinnati, but then recanted. His post-TD theatrics, especially the one against the Ravens where he donned a yellow Hall of Fame blazer, would be missed in Cincinnati if he was traded. As much as Baltimore hates him, I would love to see him in Ravens purple, but we all know that ain't ever gonna happen!
Even with the Ravens uncertainty in so many areas on the offensive side of the football, this defense is still basically intact and healthy as well. That by itself makes us a very dangerous team, epecially at home where the Ravens still have one of the best winning records in the league. Of course, the Bengals will have zero success running the ball, so it will all probably come down to two things. First of all, the Ravens will need to put pressure on Carson Palmer, which could lead to interceptions and the short fields that the Ravens crave for this offense. With a strong pass rush, the pressure comes off the Ravens' secondary, which has always had problems with not only Johnson, but TJ Who'syourmomma as well. Giving Palmer limited time to throw will help the corners and minimize the damage these guys could do.
Offensively, the Ravens will be facing what has proven to be a woeful defense. Willis McGahee and even rookie Ray Rice should be able to rip off huge chunks of yardage against the Bungles run defense. This will take the pressure off of whomever lines up under center. Not only do we not know for sure who that will be, we don't even know who the center will be as of this posting. My prediction (and prayers) are with Jason Brown snapping the ball to Troy Smith. While Smith may still be relatively unknown, everyone knows (except Billick) what Kyle Boller's capabilities, or, uh, inabilities are. Rookie number one draft pick Joe Flacco is just not ready for the speed and strategy of the professional game (yes, even the Bengals) and should not be thrown to the drooling wolves right off the bat (wrong reference, eh?). Smith gives the Ravens questionable offensive line the variables needed to lead to success, as his mobility and better accuracy will provide the Ravens short passing game with a huge boost. Between McGahee and Rice blasting upfield on runs, the rollouts and quick sharp passes will confound and confuse the Bengals defense and open up the defense for a big play. While Smith is short in NFL QB terms, he has almost perfect technically sound mechanics, holds the ball high, which in my opinion (which of course is the only one that matters right now!), considerably negates the height issue.
Boller should still remain the backup, for now, as he is signed through the 2008 season. Based on Troy Smith's success, as well as health, that will determine how quickly the future of this franchise (Flacco) ascends to the starting position. Heck, if Brady Quinn can still sit in Cleveland, why can't Flacco carry a clipboard for the entire year? Look what that type of education did for San Diego's Philip Rivers. Wow, what a novel idea it would be to have a quarterback issue in Baltimore- and not because of ineptness!
Based on the above, in summary the Ravens defense will return to top form and force numberous turnovers. The offense will move surprisingly well against the poor Bengals defense and some of their new, hardhitting rookies (Haruki Nakamura, Tom Zbikowski) will make an impact on Special Teams. Opening Day and the Ravens will come out of it tied for first place in the AFC North with a 1-0 record. Yea!!!
Ravens: 27 -13
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2008 Regular Season: Game-By-Game Predictions
Between now and the start of training camp, we will be predicting the outcomes of all 16 of the Baltimore Ravens regular season games. We will break down each game in summary and defend our reasoning of whether or not the Ravens will win or lose. We invite your comments and arguments on our opinions and you should feel free to post yours as well.
At this point, we are looking at anywhere from 7-9 wins, depending on so many variables, from who the QB ends up being, to the health and productivity of all facets of the enitre team, including the coaching staff. I fully expect this staff, from the head coach to the assistants, to have a lot more balls in their game calling, especially on the offense under Cam Cameron. As we all know, a couple of key calls or plays can make the difference between seven and nine wins.
Last season, I firmly believed that former head coach Brian Billick absolutely hurt this team's chnces to win a couple of games due to poor play calling or the lack of a spine to go for it when the season was basically over due to our poor record. He seemed to be more in the mode of saving his job than trying to take the risk to win the games. Specifically, the opening night Monday Night Football game, the Buffalo game and the Miami embarrassment were all games that his playcalling had a definite effect on the Ravens losing. A better call or decision to go for it on fourth down and inches to go for a game winning TD on the last play of the game could have possibly changed a 5-11 season into a potentially promising 8-8 record.
However, that's all water under the bridge as we have a new season with a new coaching staff, save for the returning defensive coordinator, Rex Ryan. I am prediciting a much better and energized gameplan and therefore, will be trying to look at every game from a perspective of how the Ravens can win this game. Sue me for being a "homer" but this is MY blog and this will be how I see it panning out.
Next time: Game 1 at home vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Enjoy!
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Next Stop: Training Camp
The Baltimore Ravens finished up their final OTA before training camp starts in about six weeks. During this break, the players and coaches will all go their separate ways, with the time off before the non-stop season that begins with training camp in late July through the end of the regular season and of course, hopefully the post-season (what!?).
Many of the players will probably get together on both coasts to fine tune their skills, stay in shape and blend the chemistry with their teammates. Head Coach John Harbaugh says he'll head up to Michigan with his family for some down time, but don't expect him to be without his playbook and laptop.
Many of the rookies got a good taste of what to expect come training camp. Second round draft pick Ray Rice (Rutgers) showed that size really doesn't matter and figures to be in meat of the running back mix next season. Seventh round draft pick, RB Allen Patrick (Oklahoma) seemed to be favoring his hamstring and was held out of some of the drills. He faces a tough road, with not only Willis McGahee and Ray Rice ahead of him, but also veterans PJ Daniels and Cory Ross as well. However, any Sooner runner out of Big 12 powerhouse Oklahoma has a chance to shine in the NFL. Patrick should be no different and once he's healthy, should be able to compete for a spot on Special Teams at the least.
The o-line competition should be the most fierce, with a new, revamped line whose final positions are still up in the air and probably won't be finalized until late in the pre-season. Competition, performance and of course, injuries will make the final determination of who fits where on the line.
Both safeties drafted this year did well and look to make contributions in 2008 on Special Teams and who knows where else. Tom Zbikowski (Notre Dame) and Haruki Nakamura (Cincinnati) showed lots of determination and promise during the OTA's (See "Ruki" Nakmura's Q&A under "Featured Stories" in an earlier posting).
All in all, there is still a lot to prove for the players and a lot of decisions for the coaches. Don't expect to hear too much through the grapevine over the next six weeks; however, that doesn't mean these players won't be working their butts off to get prepared for the two-a-days and competition that begins in six weeks!
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Ravens New Offensive Line
With the retirement of JO finally official, the offensive line is beginning to set into shape for the 2008 season. It appears, unless the Ravens sign another free agent left tackle, that second year behemoth Jared Gaither, all of 6'9" and 350 pounds, will inherit the left tackle position, previously occupied by Ogden the last twelve years. We would be glad to get anywhere near that from Gaither!
Next to Gaither at left guard should be last year's #1 pick, Ben Grubbs. Grubbs started at right guard last season as a rookie and performed admirably for a first year player. Now he slides over into what has been his normal position, when drafted in 2007 out of Auburn University. Moving from left guard to the center position, vacant due to the release of long time veteran Mike Flynn, will be Jason Brown. Brown is better suited at center and his bigger size and meaner attitude should be a definite improvement over Flynn, who always seemed to be pushed into the backfield last season. The Ravens hopefully won't miss the veteran role and leadership that Flynn provided.
On the right side of the o-line will have Marshall Yanda at right guard. Yanda filled the role of left tackle last year and did a pretty decent job, although his natural position is guard, which is what he was originally drafted for. Filling the end of the right side of the o-line at right tackle should be Adam Terry. Terry will now be one of the veterans on the offensive line, having played both tackles over the years, although his skills are much better suited on the right side.
Even without the presence of Ogden, the Ravens may actually have a better offensive line in 2008 than they have in recent years. Despite the loss of the Pro Bowler, they now have five guys in their strongest positions and appear to have the consistency that has been missing along the entire front for quite a while. With better run blocking and pass protection, it would not surprise me to see both Willis McGahee and whomever ends up under center at QB (that's another story for another time) have a much improved year compared to 2007.
Happy Dad's Day!
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